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酝酿已久的“双积分”政策终于有了新动向。工业和信息化部日前公布了《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理办法(征求意见稿)》(以下简称《意见稿》),其中明确提出,未来乘用车企业将按照乘用车平均燃料消耗量积分与新能源汽车比重积分的“双积分”体系来评价,评价体系将向低能耗、高效率的车型倾斜。


根据文件内容,汽车企业自身必须能够生产销售足够量的新能源汽车,否则只能购买其他企业的新能源汽车积分,或削减自身传统燃油汽车产量。业内认为,这将大大推动传统车企在新能源汽车领域加大投入,督促企业拿出更多、更好的新能源汽车产品,加速推进新能源汽车市场的应用拓展。


“双积分”政策落地再进一步


所谓“双积分”,指的是油耗积分与新能源汽车积分,两个积分的核算主体都是乘用车企业。其中,油耗积分由企业平均燃料消耗量和企业平均燃料消耗量目标值通过计算得出;新能源汽车积分则根据车辆续航里程、新能源汽车的生产和进口数量等计算得出。


根据《意见稿》,如果企业燃料消耗的实际值低于达标值,则产生正积分,否则将产生负积分。而新能源汽车积分的实际值大于目标值则产生正积分,反之则为负积分。


《意见稿》提出,油耗正积分允许结转和在关联企业间转让,但新能源汽车正积分只允许自由交易,不能结转。同时,油耗负积分和新能源负积分必须在报告发布年度内抵偿平衡,即上一年度产生的负积分本年度必须抵偿归零。


业界认为,这对新能源汽车产业来说是重大利好,因为负积分越多,企业花的钱就越多,而新能源汽车正积分越多,则对企业越有利。《意见稿》提出将油耗积分与新能源汽车积分“并行管理”,意味着新能源汽车产业开始由“政策驱动”为主转向“法规驱动”为主,并以市场化的方式鼓励车企多生产新能源汽车,少生产燃油车。


在“双积分”新政下,车企可谓是“几家欢喜几家愁”。由于新能源汽车产业刚刚起步,规模尚小,而传统燃料汽车规模巨大,所以新政刚开始时,车企的油耗积分和新能源积分可能都会是负数。另一方面,诸如比亚迪和北汽等一些提前在新能源汽车领域布局的企业则抢占了市场先机。


对传统车企来说,无论是中外合资企业,还是自主品牌,降低整车燃油消耗率已迫在眉睫。与此同时,新能源汽车的产业链或将生变。新能源汽车产业吸纳了信息化、数字化、网络化以及新能源、新材料、先进制造等大量新技术和新装备,而新变革将导致产业链在上游材料、关键零部件、整车产品以及下游售后服务等方面都出现重大变化。


国内车企积分“贫富不均”


《意见稿》明确要求,2018至2020年,新能源汽车积分比例分别达到8%、10%和12%。按此计算,若一家汽车企业2018年的产量为200万辆,则其当年的新能源汽车积分需要16万分,这就需要生产约4万辆纯电动汽车或8万辆插电式混动车。这对于目前的大多数汽车企业来说都是一大课题。


工信部最新公示的2016年度乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量数据显示,在95家国产乘用车企业和27家进口乘用车企业中,平均燃料消耗量超标的车企多达43家。其中,30家国产乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量实际值高于达标值,阿斯顿·马丁等13家进口乘用车企业实际值大于达标值。


长期以来,国内汽车市场中SUV的销量一直保持高速增长态势。中国汽车工业协会的统计数据显示,今年前5个月,乘用车销售942.1万辆,比上年同期增长1.5%,其中SUV销售增长17.1%。然而,从工信部的公示数据来看,平均油耗未达标的企业多为SUV生产大户,例如长城汽车2016年的达标值应为7.34升/百公里,实际值为7.64升/百公里;广汽菲克的达标值为7.53升/百公里,实际值为8.07升/百公里。


与此同时,在“双积分”的新体系下,国内汽车市场将出现积分“贫富不均”局面。例如,比亚迪2016年共销售插电式混合动力车45433辆,纯电动32632辆。以每辆纯电动车产生4个新能源正积分来计算,比亚迪将拥有22.1万个新能源正积分。北汽新能源的情况也一样,2016年北汽新能源已连续第四年获得国内纯电动车市场销量第一,2017年又成为1至5月份的纯电动汽车累计销量冠军。类似比亚迪、北汽新能源这样的企业,在抵消部分燃油车积分后,仍有不少盈余。


目前,销量一直排在前列的南北大众、上汽通用和上汽通用五菱的年产销量大都已达到或接近200万辆,而长安、北京现代以及东风日产等车企的年产销量也已突破100万辆。不过,除了长安汽车在新能源汽车领域有所建树外,其他企业基本没有什么动作,在未来的“双积分”制体系下,将会是购买积分的大户。


专家表示,未来两年,“双积分”政策将迫使积分缺口较大的车企增加对新能源汽车项目的投入,从而为中国新能源汽车产业的长期发展奠定基础。


新体系有待进一步完善


面对新的考核体系,车企开始加紧调整产品结构。近日,别克正式推出了旗下首款增程式混合动力车型VELITE 5,并计划在现有车型的基础上推出多款全混动和插电式混合动力车型;长城汽车也开始加快新能源产品布局;而大众之所以急于与江淮合资生产新能源汽车,也可能是出于政策方面的考虑。


全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树表示,“双积分”管理办法的推出体现了国家对乘用车行业节能减排的高度重视,有利于推进新能源汽车产业发展。但部分内容有待进一步完善。例如,由于新能源车积分的设计时间短,新能源车市场的接受度差异较大,应该给企业一个缓冲的机会。建议新能源积分如未能如期购买抵充,则可以惩罚性结转到下一年,结转的负积分按照1.5倍计算。


此外,在“油耗+新能源”积分并行的政策中,新能源积分交易市场是构成这一政策体系至关重要的一环。不过,目前新能源积分交易机制尚未完善,车企呼吁尽快将交易机制落地。


奇点汽车CEO沈海寅表示,“双积分”政策利好新创企业,目前传统车企纷纷寻求与新创企业进行合作。即使没有获得新能源车生产资质,传统车企也可以通过为新创企业代工的方式,减缓“双积分”政策带来的压力,两者之间可以形成互补。


业内人士认为,提前在新能源汽车领域布局的企业有望从新政中受益。按照《意见稿》,新能源汽车产量占公司总产量比例高的车企将拥有较大优势。从目前阶段看,自主品牌车企将因此受益,而合资车企会面临一定压力。


工信部部长苗圩日前表示,未来将进一步推进新能源汽车产业的顶层设计,推进新能源汽车在技术、产业规模、市场化以及模式创新等方面的发展。同时,进一步完善汽车在节能、环保等领域的强制性标准,不断拓展新能源汽车的市场应用。


地处加拿大西海岸的温哥华,多次被评选为全球最宜居的城市之一。

但是,过去日本军国主义造的孽,这笔帐不应算在日本人民的头上。

总之,下野是板上钉钉的事,问题是怎样保持自己领导下的民主党在竞选中获得仅次于自民党的席位,为自己赢得有影响力的政治家岁月。



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